What goes in
The benchmark uses the available monthly TSP history, the Lifecycle funds that existed at each past starting date, and the same lookback and horizon controls the member selected.
Each recommendation is compared with the Lifecycle funds that were actually available at the same time. The goal is to show whether the custom mix finished ahead of a realistic Lifecycle choice often enough to matter, not whether it could beat a hindsight-perfect selection.
The benchmark uses the available monthly TSP history, the Lifecycle funds that existed at each past starting date, and the same lookback and horizon controls the member selected.
Members see how often a mix beat a typical Lifecycle fund, how it ranked among the available Lifecycle funds month by month, and the variability range from the matched analog outcomes.
A win rate above 50% means the mix beat a typical Lifecycle fund more often than it trailed. Below 50% means it trailed more often than it led. A higher win rate is better, but the size of the wins and losses still matters too.
The benchmark is evidence, not a promise. It does not guarantee future returns or claim that the selected mix will outperform in every market environment.